Tikun Olam: Gaza: Peace Plan Landmines
Witkoff, Kushner meet with al-SisiToday, the Israeli cabinet ratified the agreement hammered out by talks in Egypt among Trump’s advisors, Israel and Hamas. It has also responded positively. But what did they agree to? The main point was hostages. Hamas, in a major concession, had agreed last week to free all remaining Israeli captives in return for 2,000 illegally imprisoned Palestinians. Subsequent talks were to finalize lists of those to be released. The parties are now in the midst of these discussions. Hamas has submitted its lists. Israel is yet to finalize them.
In particular, Hamas wants Marwan Barghouti released. He is the only Palestinian leader with credibility to lead his nation. Hamas understands that when/if the war ends, it will no longer exert the control it did in Gaza. Someone must replace it. If the enclave is not to collapse into anarchy, it must be someone with stature. Someone everyone will respect and obey. Barghouti is the only such figure.
For that very reason, Netanyahu will desperately avoid freeing him. He much prefers a weak, disunited Palestine to a well-functioning one. As Yossi Beilin said in a TV interview tonight: only someone who does not want peace will refuse to free Barghouti.
The US negotiators had accepted his inclusion on the list of prisoners to be freed. However, Israel removed his name at the insistence of Itamar Ben Gvir and Netanyahu. The former has transformed Barghouti into a demonic figure, much like Trump has transformed immigrants and antifa into existential threats to the nation. These are the hills which thugs are prepared to die on.
Israeli forces will, if they adhere to the ceasefire deal, withdraw to the yellow lineTrump, as is his wont, announced he’d brought “peace in our time.” He announced he was ready to hop on Air Force 1 and jet off to Egypt for the signing and get his picture taken with the freed hostages. Never to be outdone, he wanted to match Carter and Clinton, who celebrated their own White House peace treaty signing, with the pomp and circumstance he so loves. But his envoys told him–not so fast. You’re getting ahead of yourself.
Now, the hostages and Palestinian prisoners will be released on Monday or Tuesday. Though we still don’t know who on the Palestinian side will be included.
The deal calls for Israel to withdraw its forces to a “yellow” security line within Gaza. This would allow some of the refugees to return to their homes. Though the IDF would still occupy 53% of its territory.
Netanyahu never agreed to withdrawal, despite the terms specified in the agreement. When push comes to shove, will Trump force him to do so? Will the Arab states serving as guarantors on Hamas’ behalf, put their credibility on the line and demand Israeli adherence?
Meanwhile, Hamas has put forward its own condition, which was vaguely mentioned in the deal:
…Senior Hamas figure Osama Hamdan said…that hostages will not be released until an “official declaration of the end of the war in Gaza” is made.
Al Jazeera reports:
Khalil al-Hayya, the head of Hamas’s negotiating team, has said the group has received guarantees from the US and mediators that an agreement on a first phase of a ceasefire agreement means the war in Gaza “has ended completely”.
This, however, is a condition Netanyahu refuses, since it’s critical for his political survival that the war continue indefinitely (or until Trump forces him to yield). Unless, this is a Hamas negotiating tactic and not a hard demand, the deal appears at an impasse.
Netanyahu, who is the ultimate backtracker on agreements he signs, is seeking ways to sabotage the plan without taking any of the blame. He nibbles around the edges to attempt to undermine the deal, without rejecting it outright. Doing so would open him to blame. He’s too wily to place himself in such a position. His goal is to get the maximum benefit (freeing the Israeli hostages) with a minimum cost:
Senior Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of trying to derail the agreement…by “backtracking on the prisoner list.” A Hamas spokesperson told Al Jazeera that Israel “is playing with the timeline and the lists” and called on mediators to pressure Israel to meet its commitments.
Hamas officials maintain that the agreement is meant as the beginning of the end of the war in Gaza. However, they say Israel is “rushing and evading” key issues such as troop withdrawals, prisoner names and the return of displaced persons. Israeli officials have not publicly responded to these claims.
Despite Trump telling Netanyahu to stop hostilities during the negotiating phase, he has refused. 29 Gazans were murdered in the past 48 hours. Such killings have continued since the moment Trump made this commitment. Again, this is another way for the Israeli prime minister to arouse hostility and resentment among Palestinians and make them more inflexible in their demands. This, in turn, increases the likelihood they, and not him will be blamed in the event of a failure of the talks.
Another key sticking point is disarmament: Hamas has agreed to lay down its weapons after the war ends and a Palestinian governance body is established. But it will not do so until Israeli troops withdraw, according to a vague unspecified timeline. Netanyahu so far refuses, leaving an impasse.
Hamas demands all troops leave Gaza completely before it considers hostilities ended. Netanyahu has declared the IDF will maintain an indefinite presence. This is yet another landmine to be decommissioned if peace is to be achieved.
Regarding disarmament, UN General Assembly resolutions confirm the right of Palestinian armed resistance in the face of foreign occupation. In the case of Gaza, that would mean a full withdrawal of Israeli forces. Given that it has occupied Palestine since 1967, it’s difficult to imagine it would agree to ending such a siege in Gaza.
Hamas is relying on the Arab states who created the peace plan together with the Trump administration, to ensure Israel adheres to its provisions. However, there are numerous pitfalls regarding such an assumption. Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt, which were the key players in the agreement, must be willing to exert maximum pressure on Trump to act if Israel balks. Then, Trump himself must be willing to lay down the law with Netanyahu and force him to yield. The US president is not known for follow-through. Once he’s squeezed the maximum benefit from a situation, he abandons it and moves on to the next potential “win”:
…The sustainability of the ceasefire ultimately hinges on US President Donald Trump and other Western leaders reining in Israel and its maximalist demands.
“There is a very high risk that Israel is able to win the argument in Western capitals … that Hamas must be fully demilitarised [before the occupation ends],” he [Hugh Lovatt] said. “If that happens, then it will be a new pretext for Western states to let Israel off the hook as happened under the Oslo Accords.”
While Israelis and Gazans celebrate, I hope there will still be reason to celebrate in a week or a month or a year. A resumption of the war would be an outcome of immeasurable cruelty to a people who has already endured the worst imaginable.
About the Author
Richard Silverstein
Administrator
Silverstein is an independent journalist and has published Tikun Olam since 2003. It exposes the secrets of the Israeli national security state. He publishes regularly at Middle East Eye, the New Arab, and Jacobin Magazine. His work has also appeared in Al Jazeera English, The Nation, Truthout and other outlets.